Vaccine Autoimmune Project for Research and Education (VAP)
When 1 in 150 is really 1 in 67
By
Raymond W. Gallup & F. Edward Yazbak, MD, FAAP
On February 8, 2007 the CDC released “New Data on Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASDs) from Multiple Communities in the United States.” (1)
Since then, most people and the press have been under the impression that in the United States, the “new” CDC- reported ASD prevalence rate of 1 in 150 was a recent discovery that was current for 2007 when indeed it was not at all. The study did not document a prevalence of 1 in 150 among children born now or five years ago. The study revealed that among U.S. children born in 1994, thirteen years ago, 1 in 150 on average had a spectral disorder.
According to the official press release:
“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported findings today from the first and largest summary of prevalence data from multiple U.S. communities participating in an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) surveillance project. The results showed an average of 6.7 children out of 1,000 had an ASD in the six communities assessed in 2000, and an average of 6.6 children out of 1,000 having an ASD in the 14 communities included in the 2002 study. All children in the studies were eight years old because previous research has shown that most children with an ASD have been identified by this age for services.”
The U.S. Department of Education has recently released the official figures for autism/ASD by age and state for school year 2006-2007, in accordance with the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act’s requirement that comprehensive annual reports be published and presented to the United States Congress.
Children born in 1994 and who according to the 2002 CDC study had an ASD prevalence of around 1 in 150, probably started first grade in the fall of 2000.
In Table I, we compared by state, the number of 6 year-old children with Autism/ASD in U.S. schools in 2000-2001 with those similarly diagnosed children of the same age who attended school in 2006-2007. The percent increase in that particular group since the CDC’s acclaimed 1 in 150 prevalence figures is listed by state in the right column.
All states, except Alaska and Oklahoma had increased first grade enrollment of children with spectral disorders. Thirty five (35) states more than doubled their load and consequently their financial needs and in New Mexico, the number of ASD students quadrupled between 2000 and 2006. The District of Columbia did not report.
STATE
2000-2001
2006-2007
% increase
Alabama
47
146
211
Alaska
30
28
-6
Arizona
151
454
201
Arkansas
95
106
12
California
1,539
3,465
125
Colorado
55
156
184
Connecticut
146
343
135
Delaware
22
56
155
District of Columbia
11
x
0
Florida
481
1,080
125
Georgia
273
551
102
Hawaii
42
76
81
Idaho
28
62
121
Illinois
499
945
89
Indiana
254
576
127
Iowa
33
56
70
Kansas
84
141
68
Kentucky
96
217
126
Louisiana
102
173
70
Maine
57
145
154
Maryland
232
414
78
Massachusetts
29
604
108
Michigan
415
735
77
Minnesota
240
695
190
Mississippi
31
64
106
Missouri
198
410
107
Montana
24
35
46
Nebraska
32
87
172
Nevada
59
214
263
New Hampshire
28
70
150
New Jersey
470
1,002
113
New Mexico
14
63
350
New York
664
1,306
97
North Carolina
273
450
65
North Dakota
12
20
67
Ohio
306
798
161
Oklahoma
67
43
-36
Oregon
213
452
112
Pennsylvania
427
1,065
149
Puerto Rico
68
167
146
Rhode Island
34
89
162
South Carolina
88
216
145
South Dakota
23
47
104
Tennessee
83
251
202
Texas
738
1,629
121
Utah
79
167
111
Vermont
12
21
75
Virginia
198
484
144
Washington
122
323
165
West Virginia
49
90
84
Wisconsin
201
461
129
Wyoming
9
27
200
Total
9,483
21,275
124
Table I
Children aged 6 with autism served by IDEA
Source: U.S. Department of Education
In February 2007, Marshalyn Yeargin-Allsopp, MD, MPH chief of the CDC’s autism program was quoted as saying (1):
. “It is extremely difficult to accurately estimate the number of children who have an ASD”
. “Medical records often do not provide such information, and identification is often made by schools or education specialists”
. “We don’t know the causes of ASDs, but we do know that if we can identify autism and other developmental problems in children early, they can begin receiving appropriate interventions sooner”
Parents of children with autism would probably agree with Dr. Yeargin-Allsopp’ s first two points and most of them would gladly share their thoughts and ideas about the causes of autism, if she cared to listen.
In the same press release (1) CDC Director Gerberding was quoted as saying: “Our estimates are becoming better and more consistent, though we can’t yet tell if there is a true increase in ASDs or if the changes are the result of our better studies.”
No one asked Dr. Gerberding why, when many at the CDC knew that their own 2002 study yielded a prevalence of 1 in 150 among eight-year old children, the CDC approved, distributed and advertised an “Autism A.L.A.R.M” (2) in January 2004 that proclaimed that “1 in 166 children are diagnosed with an autism spectrum disorder.”
Dr. Gerberding did not volunteer and it appears that no one thought of asking her why the CDC kept the results of the 2000 and 2002 studies secret for so long or if a third CDC study had been done in 2004 that was still “Top Secret” for undisclosed reasons.
In any case, if according to the CDC, the ASD prevalence rate was 1 in 150 on average among children born in 1994 and if the number of 6 year-old children with ASD known to the U.S. Department of Education indeed increased by 124% nationwide over the last six school years, then it is likely that among children born in 2000 who are now registered in U.S. schools, the prevalence rate of autistic spectral disorders is around 1 in 67, on average. Now that would be a catastrophe of unprecedented proportions.
Since the CDC 2002 study results were released in early 2007, no one in authority has bothered to correct the false impression that the “new” prevalence was current. Every day tens of newspaper articles and news items discuss the alarming increase in autism “that has now reached 1 in 150” and promptly reassure people that it is not related to vaccines and a mercury preservative. It will be interesting to see when the head of the CDC’s autism program will reveal to the Nation that the prevalence of autism and other spectral disorders is really more than double that estimate.
In Table II, we have compared the number of 6-21 year-old students with ASD who attended U.S. schools in the different states, the District of Columbia (DC) and Puerto Rico in school years 1992-1993 and 2006-2007.
STATE
1992-1993
2006-2007
% increase
Alabama
68
2,178
3,103
Alaska
8
454
5,575
Arizona
199
4,001
1,911
Arkansas
30
1,581
5,170
California
1,605
31,077
1,836
Colorado
14
1,642
11,629
Connecticut
164
3,361
1,949
Delaware
15
576
3,740
District of Columbia
0
219
0
Florida
582
9,101
1,464
Georgia
262
6,815
2,501
Hawaii
52
859
1,552
Idaho
39
993
2,446
Illinois
5
9,398
187,860
Indiana
273
7,391
2,607
Iowa
67
1,102
1,545
Kansas
74
1,510
1,941
Kentucky
38
2,068
5,342
Louisiana
409
1,964
380
Maine
37
1,384
3,641
Maryland
28
5,130
18,221
Massachusetts
493
5,966
1,110
Michigan
288
9,723
3,276
Minnesota
296
8,613
2,810
Mississippi
0
880
0
Missouri
336
4,381
1,204
Montana
20
314
1,470
Nebraska
4
1,023
25,475
Nevada
5
1,638
32,660
New Hampshire
0
922
0
New Jersey
446
7,706
1,628
New Mexico
16
612
3,725
New York
1,648
13,951
747
North Carolina
786
6,462
722
North Dakota
9
335
3,622
Ohio
22
9,059
41,077
Oklahoma
31
1,598
5,055
Oregon
37
5,459
14,654
Pennsylvania
346
9,865
2,751
Puerto Rico
266
1,070
302
Rhode Island
19
1,018
5,258
South Carolina
141
1,977
1,302
South Dakota
36
477
1,225
Tennessee
304
2,881
848
Texas
1,444
16,801
1,064
Utah
105
1,959
1,766
Vermont
6
328
5,367
Virginia
539
5,813
978
Washington
476
4,677
883
West Virginia
101
782
674
Wisconsin
18
5,042
27,911
Wyoming
15
279
1,760
Total
12,222
224,415
1,736
Table II
Children aged 6-21 with autism served by IDEA
Source: U.S. Department of Education
There were 193,481 students with ASD, age 6 -21, registered in school year 2005-2006. The 224,415 students in the same category in school year 2006-2007 reflect a 15.5% increase over 1 year.
The U.S. Department of Education started providing enrollment statistics on pre-school children age 3-5 in 2000. In Table III we compare those original statistics with the recent figures for school year 2006-2007.
STATE
2000-2001
2006-2007
% increase
Alabama
84
195
132
Alaska
27
x
0
Arizona
94
364
287
Arkansas
95
195
105
California
3,422
8,521
149
Colorado
53
249
370
Connecticut
152
453
198
Delaware
62
138
123
District of Columbia
16
60
275
Florida
847
1,799
112
Georgia
272
635
133
Hawaii
88
159
81
Idaho
28
78
179
Illinois
670
1,221
82
Indiana
456
798
75
Iowa
128
90
-30
Kansas
87
169
94
Kentucky
168
299
78
Louisiana
121
318
163
Maine
150
376
151
Maryland
371
606
63
Massachusetts
231
1,579
584
Michigan
631
1,272
102
Minnesota
345
1,241
260
Mississippi
34
96
182
Missouri
134
298
122
Montana
40
58
45
Nebraska
37
161
335
Nevada
89
497
458
New Hampshire
55
138
151
New Jersey
397
831
109
New Mexico
6
116
1,833
New York
2,244
1,520
-32
North Carolina
261
903
246
North Dakota
17
40
135
Ohio
326
410
26
Oklahoma
9
65
622
Oregon
429
848
98
Pennsylvania
594
2,458
314
Puerto Rico
147
188
28
Rhode Island
48
130
171
South Carolina
121
392
224
South Dakota
35
89
154
Tennessee
153
481
214
Texas
1,108
2,443
120
Utah
58
247
326
Vermont
14
58
314
Virginia
222
581
162
Washington
64
514
703
West Virginia
14
38
171
Wisconsin
410
593
45
Wyoming
21
35
67
Total
15,685
35,043
123
Table III
Children aged 3-5 with autism served by IDEA
Source: U.S. Department of Education
Here again, the number of children with Autism/ASD more than doubled in six years. Alaska did not report and the number of affected children decreased in Iowa and New York by 30 and 32% respectively. In all other states and in DC, the number of 3 to 5 year-old children with ASD increased significantly over the last six years with thirty seven states reporting increases of over 100%. New Mexico, Washington State and Massachusetts had the highest increases: 1833%, 703% and 584% respectively.
The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders clearly outlines the required criteria for the diagnosis of autism and autistic disorders. The manual’s 4th and last revision was introduced in 1994. Since then, the diagnostic criteria of DSM-IV have not changed in any way. There have been incessant claims that the increasing prevalence of ASD is only due to the less stringent “newer” diagnostic criteria. We disagree and we have shown that indeed DSM-IV criteria are more numerous and specific. (3)
In any case, it is hard to believe that anyone would even think that in this day and age, school districts would be willing to pay thousands of dollars to provide specialized remedial services to children and adolescents who do not have a spectral disorder and distinct special needs. More ludicrous is the idea that these services would be perpetuated without a convincing reason year after year.
Table IV lists the number of students aged 6 to 21 who were registered in U.S. schools since DSM-IV and the yearly increases since then.
School Year
Students
Increase
1994-95
22,780
1995-96
28,813
6,033
1996-97
34,082
5,269
1997-98
42,487
8,405
1998-99
53,561
11,074
1999-00
65,391
11,830
2000-01
78,717
13,326
2001-02
97,847
19,130
2002-03
118,603
20,756
2003-04
140,920
22,317
2004-05
166,302
25,382
2005-06
193,481
27,179
2006-07
224,415
30,934
Table IV
Yearly increase: Children 6-21 with autism
Source: U.S. Department of Education
In 1994, the population of the United States was estimated at 260,204,000. It increased by 14.7% to 298,444,215 in 2006. During the same period, the number of students aged 6-21 with autistic spectral disorders known to the U.S. Department of Education increased by 885% from 22,780 to 224,415.
Table V lists the yearly increases in the number of children who are 3 to 5 years old and who carry the diagnosis of autism or ASD.
School Year
Students
Increase
2000-01
15,581
2001-02
17,032
1,451
2002-03
19,017
1,985
2003-04
22,724
3,707
2004-05
25,902
3,178
2005-06
30,276
4,374
2006-07
35,043
4,767
Table V
Yearly increase: Children 3-5 with autism
Source: U.S. Department of Education
This 125% increase in children 3 to 5 years old in 6 years is 20 times greater than the percent increase in the US population since the 2000 census when it was 281,421,906.
The following graph illustrates the increase in the number of children with autism and ASD during the last 15 years, in fact since autism was listed as a separate category by the U.S. Department of Education.
Increase over the last 15 years
Children with Autism / ASD age 6-21 in U.S. Schools
Source: U.S. Department of Education
We are fully aware that many do not believe the statistics that are collected yearly by the U.S. Department of Education on which we have based our reviews (and concerns) since 1999. We respect their right to do so.
We believe that the alarming trend that we have described must be halted and reversed before another generation of children is lost and thousands more families are destroyed.
Shame on them who have chosen to close their eyes, their ears and their minds to this tragic and serious problem!
References
1.. http://www.cdc. gov/od/oc/ media/pressrel/ 2007/r070208. htm
2.. http://www.medicalh omeinfo.org/ health/Autism% 20downloads/ AutismAlarm. pdf
3.. Yazbak FE. Autism in the United States: A Perspective. J. Am Phys Surg 2003; 8(4) 103-108 http://www.jpands. org/vol8no4/ yazbak.pdf
Data Sources
https://www. ideadata. org/PartBChildCo unt.asp Age 6 2006-2007
https://www. ideadata. org/arc_toc8. asp#partbCC Age 3-5 2006-2007 - Table 1-2
https://www. ideadata. org/arc_toc8. asp#partbCC Age 6-21 2006-2007 - Table 1-3
https://www. ideadata. org/tables29th/ ar_1-2.htm Age 3-5 2005-2006
https://www. ideadata. org/tables29th/ ar_1-3.htm Age 6-21 2005-2006
http://www.ideadata .org/tables28th/ ar_1-2.htm Age 3-5 2004-2005
http://www.ideadata .org/tables28th/ ar_1-3.htm Age 6-21 2004-2005
http://www.ideadata .org/tables27th/ ar_aa2.htm Age 3-5 2003-2004
http://www.ideadata .org/tables27th/ ar_aa3.htm Age 6-21 2003-2004
http://www.ideadata .org/tables26th/ ar_aa2.htm Age 3-5 2002-2003
http://www.ideadata .org/tables26th/ ar_aa3.htm Age 6-21 2002-2003
http://www.ideadata .org/tables25th/ ar_aa2.htm Age 3-5 2001-2002
http://www.ideadata .org/tables25th/ ar_aa3.htm Age 6-21 2001-2002
http://www.ideadata .org/tables24th/ ar_aa2.htm Age 3-5 2000-2001
http://www.ideadata .org/tables24th/ ar_aa3.htm Age 6-21 2000-2001
http://www.ideadata .org/tables/ ar_aa2.htm Age 6-21 1999-2000
Raymond W. Gallup
Lake Hiawatha, NJ
highnoon@gti. net
F. Edward Yazbak
Falmouth, Massachusetts
tlautstudy@aol. com
October 5, 2007
© VAProject 2007
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
